Housing Stability Score
38
/100
2024 Score Edition • Higher is stronger
Score snapshot: 2024-12-30 · Method: v3-2024-refresh-explainability
Housing-first durability lens
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U.S. Housing Stability Intelligence
County Profile
Caroline County profile describes structural housing sustainability conditions for local residents using standardized national methodology.
Housing Stability Score
38
/100
2024 Score Edition • Higher is stronger
Score snapshot: 2024-12-30 · Method: v3-2024-refresh-explainability
Housing-first durability lens
Trend Direction
Declining
Trend direction compares this snapshot with the prior published score; movement within three points is treated as stable.
September 2026 Conditions Edition
Loading the published county observations.
Media Summary
Caroline County, VA has a 38 / 100 Housing Stability Score with a declining trend signal in the 2024 Score Edition (score date 2024-12-30; method v3-2024-refresh-explainability). The score is a structural housing sustainability measure, not a forecast of future prices.
Citation Language
Caroline County, VA has a 38/100 Housing Stability Score (pressured) in the 2024 Score Edition (score date 2024-12-30; method v3-2024-refresh-explainability), 38/100 national percentile, and -13.4 point change versus the prior published snapshot.
Housing Stability Score
38
Pressured relative housing sustainability score on a 0-100 scale in the 2024 Score Edition (score date 2024-12-30).
Full County Rank
#1,953 of 3,136
Full national coverage rank across the county index. Same-state full rank: #58 of 131.
Score Movement
-13.4
Point change versus the prior published score snapshot in the 2024 Score Edition.
Leading Signal
Market Volatility
Highest component score in the four-part housing stability framework.
These drivers summarize the main score movement, strongest support, and clearest pressure point for this location.
Score Driver
The composite score declined by 13.4 points versus the prior published snapshot, enough to mark the trend as declining.
Component Driver
Market volatility is the strongest component at 54 / 100, so it contributes the most support to the current housing stability score.
Component Driver
Affordability stability is the main constraint at 39 / 100, so users should read that component as the clearest pressure point in this location.
Score Driver
This score uses 14 observed local inputs out of 14 model inputs; 0 inputs are filled from comparable benchmarks when direct observations are unavailable.
Every location includes standardized component evaluation so cross-location comparison stays structurally consistent.
Affordability Stability
Evaluates whether housing costs align sustainably with local income over time using rent burden, price-to-income, and cost growth relative to wages.
Component Score: 39 / 100
State: 63 / 100 percentile (above-average relative stability)
National: 39 / 100 percentile (below-average relative stability)
Market Volatility
Measures housing price consistency and resistance to boom-and-bust cycles that can destabilize long-term resident outcomes.
Component Score: 54 / 100
State: 63 / 100 percentile (above-average relative stability)
National: 54 / 100 percentile (mid-range relative stability)
Supply Pressure
Tracks whether housing availability keeps pace with demand through inventory, construction pace, and local supply balance conditions.
Component Score: 51 / 100
State: 51 / 100 percentile (mid-range relative stability)
National: 51 / 100 percentile (mid-range relative stability)
Ownership Sustainability
Assesses long-term ownership viability through expense escalation, tax burden pressure, insurance overlap, and distress indicators.
State Comparison
State benchmark: 57 / 100 percentile (higher is more stable), placing this location near the middle of comparable places in this state.
National Comparison
National benchmark: 38 / 100 percentile (higher is more stable), placing this location below most comparable places nationwide.
Scoring uses public, reproducible county-level datasets including ACS, BLS LAUS, FHFA HPI, and Census housing estimates, applied through the same framework across affordability stability, market volatility, supply pressure, and ownership sustainability.
2024 Score Edition • Score snapshot: 2024-12-30 • Method: v3-2024-refresh-explainability
The September 2026 conditions edition provides separate current observations. A future score edition will be published only after a complete, documented methodology refresh.
County coverage reflects local observations vs modeled imputations for this score date.
Observed Local
14
Inherited Inputs
0
Imputed Inputs
0
Coverage Share
100%
Total model inputs in the published score: 14
Component Score: 43 / 100
State: 47 / 100 percentile (mid-range relative stability)
National: 43 / 100 percentile (mid-range relative stability)
September 2026 Conditions Edition
These four source-backed observations are current conditions context. They do not create a new score, change a ranking, or forecast a housing market.
County-level observations
All four signals are direct county observations for Caroline County.
Coverage: rent 1/1, house prices 1/1, housing stock 1/1, permits 1/1 county.
Rent benchmark
$1,244
-2 (-0.2%) from the prior benchmark.
FY 2027 HUD FMR · 1/1 county coverage
House-price movement
+6.5%
Annual county movement; it does not forecast future prices.
2025 FHFA county HPI annual change · 1/1 county coverage
Housing stock
+10.3%
+10.3% housing stock and +11.3% population from 2020 to 2025.
2020–2025 Census Vintage · 1/1 county coverage
Permitted units
16.3
224 estimated permitted units in 2025; permits are not completed homes.
2025 Census BPS annual estimated units · 1/1 county coverage
At a 30% gross-income target, the FY 2027 HUD FMR two-bedroom benchmark of $1,244 per month corresponds to about $49,760 in annual household income. This is an illustrative budget calculation using the county-based context above, not a city asking-rent estimate or an eligibility threshold. HUD gross rent already includes applicable tenant-paid utilities.
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